Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points - Player Prop Bet 5/14/2024

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Nickeil Alexander-Walker

NBA · Player Props

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 14, 2024

Updated May 15, 2024 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (+102/-124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has attempted 5.8 treys per game over the last 10 games, 1.6 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while playing away from home.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has successfully made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 20.4% higher than he's put through the hoop over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. Denver may be a good one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting PGs have attempted an enormous 6.2 free throws per game over the last 5 games when the Denver Nuggets have the home court advantage (3rd-most in the league).

Favors Under

This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PGs have averaged 20.5% on threes (2nd-lowest in the league) against the Nuggets, creating a tough matchup.
The 2nd-slowest pace-of-play visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves are expected to experience a decrease in plays in this game from sharing the court with the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play home offense in the league over the last 5 games (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark added chances for scoring and assists, but the Timberwolves grade out 7thworst in in the NBA with a mere 9.5 offensive boards per game this year.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker is expected to see a decline in output in all stat categories in light of playing on the visting team in this contest.

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