Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points - Player Prop Bet 12/28/2023

NBA · Player Props

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Dallas Mavericks · Dec 28, 2023

Updated Dec 29, 2023 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has successfully made 43.2% of his treys over the last 13 games at home, 14.2% higher than he's sunk in all games this season while on his home court.
In terms of offense, the Timberwolves's outstanding 49.2% field goal percentage comes in as the 4th-strongest in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The matchup against the Dallas Mavericks is a hard one for three-pointers; opposing teams have put up the 5th-lowest 3-point rate in the NBA over the last 5 games (33.8%).
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in plays in this contest from being pitted against the 3rd-speediest pace road offense in the league over the last 15 games (the Mavericks).
Nickeil Alexander-Walker stands to see a spike in effectiveness in all facets of the game due to enjoying the home court advantage in this contest.

Favors Under

The 10th-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 15 games has been the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 3rd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further opportunities for scoring and assists).
The Dallas Mavericks have allowed the 5th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.8) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide additional chances for scoring and assists).
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has sunk 59.3% of his free throws this year, placing him in the 11th percentile among all players in the league.
This matchup may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; their opposition has attempted a colossal 24.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (9th-most in the NBA).