Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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Nickeil Alexander-Walker

NBA · Player Props

Nickeil Alexander-Walker

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Nickeil Alexander-Walker Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-118).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the 9th-highest scoring offense in the league while on the road this year.
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one for three-pointers; the other team have compiled the lowest three rate in the league this year (34.2%).
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 7th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year.
The matchup against the Nuggets may be a hard one for getting to the free throw line; opposing squads have attempted just 20.0 foul shots per game over the last 25 games (2nd-least in the league).

Favors Under

Nickeil Alexander-Walker has attempted just 5.1 field goals per game this year, quite a bit less than his 10.3 mark last year.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which ought to lead to decreased opportunities for the Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).
The Nuggets have allowed the 6th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.9) in the NBA to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new chances for scoring and assists).
Nickeil Alexander-Walker has converted a lowly 64.4% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly less than his 74.4 rate last year.

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