Nassir Little Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 12/19/2023

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Nassir Little

NBA · Player Props

Nassir Little

F-G · Phoenix Suns

Rebounds

Portland Trail Blazers vs Phoenix Suns · Dec 19, 2023

Updated Dec 20, 2023 3:14 AM EST

Analysis

Nassir Little Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+114/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Nassir Little has averaged 1.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games, 0.7 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season.
Out of all players in the league, Nassir Little rates in the 23rd percentile for personal fouls, averaging just 1.3 fouls per game this year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create bonus chances for scoring and assists, and the Phoenix Suns rank 5thbest in in the league on the road with 11.8 offensive boards per game this year.
Playing at home, the Trail Blazers have allowed the 6th-least offensive boards per game (10.3) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The least up-tempo tempo visiting offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Suns.
The Trail Blazers have played at the 4th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Suns.
Nassir Little is expected to suffer a reduction in effectiveness in all stat categories on account of playing on the visting team in this matchup.

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