Naji Marshall Points - Player Prop Bet 3/8/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Naji Marshall

F · New Orleans Pelicans

Points

New Orleans Pelicans vs Dallas Mavericks · Mar 8, 2023

Updated Mar 9, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Naji Marshall Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-103/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Naji Marshall has converted 83.3% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 40.8% higher than he's put through the net overall this season.
The New Orleans Pelicans check in as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
On the road, the Mavericks have given up the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Naji Marshall has made 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games, 20.8% more than he's made over the course of the season.
The matchup vs. the Mavericks may be a challenging one for getting to the free throw line; the other team have attempted a lowly 19.6 free throws per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the league).

Favors Under

Naji Marshall has played 12.4 minutes per game this year, riding the bench far more than most players in the NBA: 22nd percentile.
The New Orleans Pelicans have been the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year in terms of 3-point shots.
This matchup is a favorable one for threes; when the Mavericks are away from home, the other team have compiled the 6th-highest 3-point rate in the NBA against them this year (36.5%).
The New Orleans Pelicans have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games on their home court.
The Mavericks have played at the slowest pace in the league this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Pelicans.