Mouhamed Gueye Points - Player Prop Bet 4/18/2025

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Mouhamed Gueye

NBA · Player Props

Mouhamed Gueye

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat · Apr 18, 2025

Updated Apr 18, 2025 10:58 PM EST

Analysis

Mouhamed Gueye Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mouhamed Gueye has sunk 50.0% of his attempts from downtown over the last 5 games at home, 17.9% more than he's made overall this season with the home court advantage.
The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a positive one for 3-pointers; opposing starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest 3-point rate in the league this year (43.4%).
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest tempo in the NBA at home this year.
The Hawks check in as the 7th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore create new chances for scoring and assists).
Mouhamed Gueye has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 14.3% higher than he's sunk over the course of the season while on his home court.

Favors Under

Mouhamed Gueye has committed 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 more than he's committed overall this season.
The Atlanta Hawks check in as the 8th-least efficient 3-point shooting team in the NBA when playing at home this year.
The Heat have played at the 3rd-most lethargic tempo in the NBA this year, which ought to reduce opportunities for the Atlanta Hawks.
The matchup against the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; opposing starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 free throws per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).

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