Mouhamed Gueye Points - Player Prop Bet 4/11/2025

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Mouhamed Gueye

NBA · Player Props

Mouhamed Gueye

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Philadelphia 76ers vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 11, 2025

Updated Apr 12, 2025 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

Mouhamed Gueye Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+105/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against Philadelphia is a good one for 3-point shots; when the Philadelphia 76ers are at home, the opposing team's starting PFs have put up the 2nd-highest three rate in the NBA this year (45.6%).
The 3rd-fastest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Atlanta Hawks.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, and the Hawks grade out 6th-best in the NBA without the home court advantage with 12.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Mouhamed Gueye has attempted 3.0 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when playing away from home, 1.2 more than he's attempted over the course of the year on the road.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Mouhamed Gueye comes in at the 16th percentile for 3-point performance with a bad 24.8% rate this year.
The Atlanta Hawks will likely experience a decrease in opportunities in this game from facing the 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play home offense in the league this year (the 76ers).
Over the last 10 games when they are the visiting team, the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted 2.8 free throws per game (7th-fewest in the league) vs. the 76ers, finding it difficult to draw fouls.
Mouhamed Gueye will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing on the road tends to worsen player production in all facets of the game.

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