Mouhamed Gueye Points - Player Prop Bet 4/5/2025

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Mouhamed Gueye

NBA · Player Props

Mouhamed Gueye

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Atlanta Hawks vs New York Knicks · Apr 5, 2025

Updated Apr 6, 2025 3:09 AM EST

Analysis

Mouhamed Gueye Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+106/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are at home, the other team's starting PFs have shot 47.7% on 3-pointers (2nd-highest in the league) against the Knicks, creating a good matchup.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the league as the home team this year.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and spark further chances for scoring and assists, and the Hawks rank 5th-best in in the NBA with 12.1 offensive rebounds per game over the last 15 games.
Mouhamed Gueye has made 83.3% of his free throws over the last 7 games, 12.9% higher than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
The matchup against the Knicks may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a whopping 5.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games (5th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Mouhamed Gueye comes in at the 17th percentile for three-point ability at home with a bad 23.0% rate this year.
As it relates to three-pointers, the Hawks's lackluster 34.2% rate of converted threes while playing at home ranks 4th-lowest in the NBA over the last 20 games.
The Knicks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while traveling, which should reduce plays for the Atlanta Hawks.

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