Mouhamed Gueye Points - Player Prop Bet 3/27/2025

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Mouhamed Gueye

NBA · Player Props

Mouhamed Gueye

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Mar 27, 2025

Updated Mar 28, 2025 2:29 AM EST

Analysis

Mouhamed Gueye Points Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are on the road, the opposition's starting PFs have shot 46.4% on 3-pointers (best in the league) against the Heat, creating a positive matchup.
The Hawks have played at the quickest tempo in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and create further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Atlanta Hawks grade out 6th-best in the league away from home with 12.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.

Favors Under

Mouhamed Gueye has converted 39.6% of his field goals this year, ranking in the 23rd percentile among all players in the league.
Mouhamed Gueye has made 21.3% of his shots from downtown when playing on the road this year, placing him in the 16th percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA at home this year, which ought to decrease possessions for the Hawks.
The matchup against the Heat may be a tough one for getting to the free-throw line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a lowly 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).
Mouhamed Gueye will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing without the home court advantage generally reduces player performance for all stats.

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