Mouhamed Gueye Points - Player Prop Bet 2/26/2025

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Mouhamed Gueye

NBA · Player Props

Mouhamed Gueye

F · Atlanta Hawks

Points

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Feb 26, 2025

Updated Feb 27, 2025 4:04 AM EST

Analysis

Mouhamed Gueye Points Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting PFs have averaged 46.4% on three-pointers (highest in the league) against the Heat, labeling this as a good matchup.
The Atlanta Hawks have played at the fastest pace in the NBA over the last 25 games.
Offensive rebounds retain possession and bring about more opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Hawks rank 5th-best in the NBA as the road team with 12.8 offensive boards per game this year.

Favors Under

Out of all players in the NBA, Mouhamed Gueye lands in the 15th percentile for field goal ability with a subpar 36.8% rate this year.
Mouhamed Gueye has converted 10.0% of his attempts from beyond the arc while playing on the road this year, putting him in the 9th percentile among all players in the league.
The Hawks will likely suffer a drop-off in opportunities today from sharing the court with the least up-tempo tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Heat).
The matchup against the Heat may be a difficult one for getting to the foul line; the opposing team's starting PFs have attempted a mere 1.8 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (2nd-least in the NBA).
Mouhamed Gueye figures to suffer a drop-off in productivity across the board as a result of playing away from home in this contest.

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