Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2025

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Mike Conley

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 7, 2025

Updated Mar 8, 2025 4:35 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-142/+104).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup vs. the Miami Heat is a favorable one; they have given up the 4th-most points per game in the league to the other team's starting PGs over the last 10 games (23.1).
Offensive rebounds retain possession and generate more chances for scoring and assists, and the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 9th-best in in the league with 12.2 offensive rebounds per game over the last 25 games.
Mike Conley has converted 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 9.4% more than he's sunk overall this season.
Over the last 5 games, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 5.8 free throws per game (3rd-most in the league) vs. the Heat, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

In comparison to last year's 44.7% rate, Mike Conley's shooting ability has tailed off this year to 37.4%.
Mike Conley has been called for 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games away from home, 1.2 more than he's been called for in all games this year on the road.
The Timberwolves have been the 4th-least efficient shooting team in the league over the last 10 games.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA this year.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the NBA on their home court this year, which ought to reduce plays for the Timberwolves.

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