Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 5/16/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · May 16, 2024

Updated May 17, 2024 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the NBA, Mike Conley rates in the 89th percentile for 3-point proficiency while at home with an excellent 43.3% rate this year.
Mike Conley has played 33.4 minutes per game over the last 14 games with the home court advantage, 4.7 higher than he's played over the course of the year at home.
As it relates to treys, the Minnesota Timberwolves's fantastic 38.5% rate of made threes places 2nd-best in the league this year.
Mike Conley has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games at home, 10.0% higher than he's made in all games this year when playing at home.
The matchup against the Denver Nuggets may be a positive one for getting to the foul line; the opposition's starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 5.6 free throws per game over the last 5 games (4th-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Mike Conley has been called for 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.9 higher than he's been called for over the course of the season.
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have averaged 4.5 three attempts per game (lowest in the league) against the Nuggets, resulting in a challenging matchup.
The 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play offense in the league over the last 10 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Nuggets have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA this year, which should lead to fewer opportunities for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves rank as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league while on their home court this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).