Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 5/6/2024

reorder

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 6, 2024

Updated May 7, 2024 2:02 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has attempted 10.8 shots per game over the last 5 games, 2.2 more than he's attempted overall this season.
Mike Conley has made 3.0 three-point shots per game over the last 10 games on the road, 0.6 higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the season when playing on the road.
Out of all players in the league, Mike Conley measures in the 77th percentile for playing time, registering a colossal 29.0 minutes per game this year.
The Minnesota Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the league over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Denver may be a good one for getting to the free-throw line; opposing starting PGs have attempted a monstrous 6.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Nuggets have the home court advantage (3rd-most in the NBA).

Favors Under

Mike Conley has accumulated 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.2 higher than he's accumulated in all games this season.
This year when they are away from home, the opposing team's starting PGs have shot 20.5% on three-pointers (2nd-weakest in the NBA) vs. the Denver Nuggets, labeling this as a hard matchup.
The Timberwolves have played at the 6th-most lethargic tempo in the NBA over the last 20 games when playing on the road.
The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, which should lead to decreased possessions for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves have been the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).