Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 5/4/2024

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 4, 2024

Updated May 4, 2024 11:06 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -118 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has successfully made 2.3 shots from downtown per game this year, ranking him in the 90th percentile among all players in the league.
Mike Conley has averaged 29.0 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the league: 77th percentile.
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 2nd-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 15 games when playing on the road.
Mike Conley has converted 91.9% of his foul shot attempts while playing away from home this year, putting him in the 92nd percentile out of all players in the league.
The matchup vs. Denver may be a favorable one for getting to the free-throw line; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a colossal 6.2 foul shots per game over the last 5 games when the Denver Nuggets have the home court advantage (3rd-most in the league).

Favors Under

Mike Conley has been called for 2.6 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's been called for overall this year.
The matchup vs. Denver is a hard one for three-point shots; when the Denver Nuggets are playing at home, opposing starting PGs have shot for the 2nd-lowest 3-point rate in the league this year (20.5%).
The 6th-least up-tempo pace visiting team in the league over the last 20 games has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves are expected to suffer a reduction in opportunities today from squaring off against the 4th-most lethargic tempo team in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
The Minnesota Timberwolves rank as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore lead to fewer opportunities for scoring and assists).