Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 3/19/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 19, 2024

Updated Mar 20, 2024 1:09 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has successfully made 5.2 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 higher than he's sunk overall this year.
Mike Conley has played 33.4 minutes per game over the last 14 games while on his home court, 5.1 higher than he's played in all games this year at home.
With respect to shots from downtown, the Timberwolves's superb 38.7% rate of converted threes comes in as the 4th-highest in the league this year.
Mike Conley has successfully made a whopping 90.4% of his free throws this year, a big improvement over his 82.8 rate last year.
Mike Conley should see a spike in production in all stat categories as a result of having the home court advantage in this game.

Favors Under

This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have totaled 4.5 3-point attempts per game (fewest in the league) against the Nuggets, marking this as a hard matchup.
The 6th-least up-tempo tempo team in the NBA this year has been the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are expected to experience a decrease in possessions in this contest from sharing the court with the 2nd-most sluggish pace road offense in the league over the last 25 games (the Denver Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and spark bonus opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves grade out 2ndworst in in the league at home with only 8.6 offensive rebounds per game this year.
The matchup against Denver may be a challenging one for drawing fouls; the other team's starting PGs have attempted a mere 3.3 free throws per game over the last 10 games when the Nuggets are the visiting squad (2nd-least in the NBA).