Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 3/10/2024

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Mike Conley

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Mar 10, 2024

Updated Mar 11, 2024 2:56 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-114/-106).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The matchup against Los Angeles is a favorable one for field goal attempts; when the Lakers are playing at home, the other team's starting PGs have tallied the 7th-most shot attempts per game in the league this year (15.6).
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 4th-quickest pace-of-play in the league this year, which ought to lead to more plays for the Timberwolves.
Mike Conley has made 100.0% of his free throw attempts over the last 5 games on the road, 8.6% higher than he's converted in all games this season while playing on the road.
With respect to getting to the foul line, the Timberwolves's exceptional 25.6 foul shot attempts per game measures as the 2nd-best in the NBA over the last 5 games.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 4.8 free throws per game (8th-highest in the NBA) against the Los Angeles Lakers, easily managing to get to the charity stripe.

Favors Under

Mike Conley has shot and missed 3.8 attempts from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 0.9 higher than he's missed overall this season.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games.
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate additional opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Timberwolves rank 4thworst in in the NBA with just 9.3 offensive rebounds per game this year.
Mike Conley is expected to suffer a drop-off in output in all stat categories in light of being on the road in this matchup.

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