Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 12/18/2023

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Mike Conley

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Miami Heat vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 18, 2023

Updated Dec 19, 2023 12:53 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has notched 16.4 points per game over the last 5 games when playing on the road, 3.9 higher than he's notched in all games this season on the road.
Mike Conley has sunk 3.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc over the course of the season when playing away from home.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have been the 8th-highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 10 games when playing on the road.
Over the last 10 games, the other team's starting PGs have compiled 23.1 points per game (27th-highest in the league) vs. the Heat, labeling this as a good matchup for offensive effectiveness.
This year, opposing clubs have nabbed 9.2 offensive boards per game (lowest in the NBA) against the Heat (losing possessions that could otherwise lead to more opportunities for offense).

Favors Under

The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games while on the road.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 15 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Timberwolves.
The Timberwolves rank as the 6th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Mike Conley will not enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing on the road tends to lower stat production across the board.

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