Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 12/14/2023

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Mike Conley

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Dallas Mavericks vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Dec 14, 2023

Updated Dec 15, 2023 1:46 AM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has attempted 6.6 three-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's attempted in all games this year.
The Timberwolves have been the 6th-most efficient shooting team in the league this year.
The Timberwolves are expected to get a boost in possessions in this contest from facing the 7th-speediest pace-of-play visiting team in the NBA over the last 5 games (the Dallas Mavericks).
Mike Conley has sunk an impressive 94.3% of his free throw attempts this season, quite a bit higher than his 82.8 rate last season.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Dallas is a hard one; when the Dallas Mavericks are the visiting team, they have allowed the 13th-least points per game in the league to the opposing team's starting PGs this year (15.1).
The Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
Offensive rebounds maintain possession and generate additional chances for scoring and assists, but the Minnesota Timberwolves rank 6thworst in in the league with a mere 9.8 offensive boards per game this year.
This year when they are at home, the other team has come down with 12.0 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Dallas Mavericks (maintaining possessions that can produce added chances for offense).
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 2.8 free throws per game (14th-lowest in the NBA) against the Mavericks, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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