Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 11/4/2023

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Utah Jazz · Nov 4, 2023

Updated Nov 4, 2023 11:41 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to scoring, the Minnesota Timberwolves's remarkable 48.8% field goal percentage as the visting team settles in as the 2nd-most in the NBA since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have logged 20.0 points per game (28th-highest in the NBA) vs. the Jazz, branding this as a good matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Jazz have played at the 9th-most up-tempo pace in the NBA in their home city this year, which should boost possessions for the Timberwolves.
Mike Conley has attempted 3.3 foul shots per game over the last 14 games on the road, 3.3 more than he's attempted overall this year on the road.
Over the last 19 games when they are on the road, the opposition's starting PGs have attempted 4.4 free throws per game (22nd-highest in the NBA) against the Jazz, finding it easy to draw fouls.

Favors Under

Mike Conley has made 38.0% of his field goals over the last 14 games at home, 30.9% less than he's made over the course of the year when playing at home.
Mike Conley has sunk 35.3% of his treys over the last 14 games at home, 18.8% lower than he's converted from downtown overall this season playing at home.
Mike Conley has accumulated 2.1 personal fouls per game over the last 14 games when playing at home, 1.1 higher than he's accumulated in all games this year at home.
The Timberwolves check in as the 4th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA as the away team since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Since the start of last season when they are at home, opposing teams have come down with 11.1 offensive boards per game (6th-most in the league) vs. the Jazz (lengthening possessions that can create extra opportunities for offense).