Mike Conley Points - Player Prop Bet 11/1/2023

NBA · Player Props

Mike Conley

G · Minnesota Timberwolves

Points

Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 1, 2023

Updated Nov 1, 2023 8:13 PM EST

Analysis

Mike Conley Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-125/+100).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Mike Conley has attempted 5.2 shots from downtown per game since the start of last season, putting him in the 83rd percentile among all players in the NBA.
The Timberwolves check in as the 2nd-most efficient shooting team in the league as the home team since the start of last season.
The Denver Nuggets have allowed the 8th-least offensive rebounds per game (9.9) in the NBA to opposing squads since the start of last season (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Mike Conley has attempted 3.3 free throws per game over the last 14 games while on the road, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) higher than he's attempted in all games this season on the road.
Mike Conley will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home city usually improves player production for all stats.

Favors Under

Mike Conley has converted 38.0% of his shots from the field over the last 14 games at home, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1)% less than he's put through the net over the course of the season with the home court advantage.
Mike Conley has committed 2.1 personal fouls per game over the last 14 games, core.FORMAT(ABS(DIFF_RATE),1) more than he's committed in all games this season.
The matchup vs. Denver is a hard one for shots from the field; when the Denver Nuggets are at home, the other team's starting PGs have posted the 15th-lowest FG% in the league since the start of last season (41.9%).
The {OPP_TEAM} will likely suffer a drop-off in plays today from squaring off against the 5th-least up-tempo tempo home offense in the NBA this year (the Nuggets).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce bonus chances for scoring and assists, but the Timberwolves grade out 5thworst in in the NBA at home with a mere 9.1 offensive boards per game since the start of last season.