Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 4/19/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Rebounds

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 19, 2023

Updated Apr 20, 2023 2:01 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has posted 5.6 defensive rebounds per game over the last 9 games, 1.0 higher than he's posted overall this season.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 28.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 75th percentile.
The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. will enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this contest. Playing in your home stadium generally increases player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.
The Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

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