Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/11/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder · May 11, 2025

Updated May 11, 2025 7:39 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Among all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. measures in the 85th percentile, compiling a colossal 17.9 points per game when playing at home this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 56.2% of his treys over the last 5 games at home, 16.6% more than he's made from three in all games this season while on his home court.
Michael Porter Jr. has tallied 33.4 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year, placing him in the 91st percentile -- putting him among the most-used players in the NBA.
The Nuggets will likely see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the 2nd-quickest pace team in the league over the last 15 games (the Oklahoma City Thunder).
The Nuggets have been the 9th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

The Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year when it comes to 3-point attempts.
The matchup vs. the Thunder is a hard one for three-point shots; the other team's starting SFs have put up the 2nd-lowest 3-point percentage in the NBA this year (25.5%).
The Nuggets have played at the 7th-least up-tempo pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The matchup against Oklahoma may be a difficult one for getting to the charity stripe; the other team's starting SFs have attempted a measly 2.0 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Oklahoma City Thunder are the visiting squad (2nd-least in the league).

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