Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/11/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Memphis Grizzlies · Apr 11, 2025

Updated Apr 12, 2025 12:30 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-140/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has made 60.1% of his field goal attempts over the last 5 games, 9.8% more than he's put through the net over the course of the season.
Michael Porter Jr. has converted 3.6 shots from downtown per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 more than he's made from three in all games this season.
Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. lands in the 91st percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 33.4 minutes per game when playing at home this year.
As it relates to shooting, the Nuggets's outstanding 122.9 points per game while at home settles in as the 2nd-highest in the league this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 5th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA this year.

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has committed 2.9 personal fouls per game over the last 15 games, 0.8 higher than he's committed over the course of the season.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 9.7 field goal attempts per game (2nd-fewest in the NBA) against the Grizzlies, labeling this as a tough matchup.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 7th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
Over the last 12 games, opposing starting SFs have attempted 2.6 free throws per game (3rd-fewest in the NBA) against the Memphis Grizzlies, finding it difficult to get to the charity stripe.

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