Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/17/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Golden State Warriors vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 17, 2025

Updated Mar 18, 2025 1:54 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has made 6.9 baskets per game when playing on the road this year, ranking him in the 88th percentile among all players in the NBA.
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 3.2 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games on the road, 0.9 more than he's made from three overall this season while on the road.
The matchup vs. the Warriors is a good one for 3-pointers; opposing starting SFs have shot for the highest 3-point percentage in the league this year (47.0%).
The 6th-most up-tempo tempo offense in the NBA this year has been the Nuggets.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to further opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7th-best in in the NBA while on the road with 12.2 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 2.7 personal fouls per game over the last 10 games, 0.8 more than he's averaged over the course of the year.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year in terms of shot attempts from downtown.
This year when they are the visiting team, opposing starting PFs have attempted 3.1 free throws per game (9th-fewest in the NBA) against the Warriors, finding it difficult to get to the free-throw line.
Michael Porter Jr. ought to see a decline in productivity for all stats as a result of being on the road in this contest.

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