Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 3/7/2025

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns · Mar 7, 2025

Updated Mar 8, 2025 4:35 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 17.2 shots per game over the last 5 games with the home court advantage, 3.2 higher than he's attempted overall this year at home.
Michael Porter Jr. has played 32.9 minutes per game at home this year, putting him in the 89th percentile -- seeing the court more than most players in the league.
The matchup against Phoenix is a positive one for 3-pointers; when the Suns are the visiting squad, the other team's starting SFs have put up the 8th-highest three rate in the NBA this year (41.1%).
The 5th-quickest pace offense in the NBA this year has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Suns have played at the 4th-most up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games away from their home city, which should raise plays for the Denver Nuggets.

Favors Under

The Nuggets check in as the least aggressive offense in the NBA this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
The matchup against the Phoenix Suns may be a tough one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SFs have attempted a measly 1.6 foul shots per game over the last 10 games (4th-least in the league).

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