Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 5/19/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · May 19, 2024

Updated May 19, 2024 11:56 PM UTC

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-116/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -116.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Out of all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. slots into the 86th percentile for shots taken, totaling 13.2 per game this year.
Michael Porter Jr. has made 3.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games at home, 0.6 more than he's made from beyond the arc over the course of the season while playing at home.
Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 39.8 minutes per game over the last 5 games playing at home, 7.3 higher than he's averaged over the course of the season at home.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-most efficient shooting team in the league while playing at home this year.
Michael Porter Jr. is expected to get a boost in production in all stat categories as a result of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

Favors Under

Michael Porter Jr. has accumulated 3.0 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's accumulated overall this year.
The matchup vs. the Timberwolves is a challenging one for shots from the field; the other team's starting SFs have posted the 3rd-lowest field goal percentage in the league this year (40.6%).
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-slowest tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games as the home team.
The Minnesota Timberwolves have played at the 2nd-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games, which ought to decrease plays for the Nuggets.
The Nuggets have been the 10th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).

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