Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/29/2024

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks · Jan 29, 2024

Updated Jan 30, 2024 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 8.2 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.3 more than he's converted in all games this season while on his home court.
Out of all players in the league, Michael Porter Jr. ranks in the 82nd percentile for playing time, registering an enormous 31.3 minutes per game this year.
This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting SFs have totaled 7.0 baskets per game (28th-most in the NBA) against the Bucks, labeling this as a good matchup.
The Nuggets are expected to see a rise in possessions in this game from facing the fastest pace team in the league over the last 20 games (the Bucks).
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and produce extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Nuggets rank 6thbest in in the league with 12.0 offensive boards per game over the last 5 games.

Favors Under

The most sluggish pace offense in the league over the last 5 games has been the Denver Nuggets.
The Milwaukee Bucks have given up the 10th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.0) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
With respect to getting to the charity stripe, the Denver Nuggets's unimpressive 21.0 foul shots per game comes in as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

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