Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 1/27/2024

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NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Philadelphia 76ers · Jan 27, 2024

Updated Jan 28, 2024 2:33 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-122/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -128 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has sunk 8.2 shots made from the field per game over the last 5 games at home, 1.4 more than he's converted over the course of the season while on his home court.
Among all players in the NBA, Michael Porter Jr. ranks in the 81st percentile for playing time, compiling a whopping 31.1 minutes per game with the home court advantage this year.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce added opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has converted 91.7% of his foul shots over the last 10 games at home, 13.2% higher than he's converted over the course of the year playing at home.
Michael Porter Jr. will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally increases player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The matchup against the 76ers is a difficult one; they have given up the 15th-least points per game in the league to the other team's starting SFs this year (11.3).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The 76ers have played at the 10th-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA over the last 5 games, which should lead to fewer possessions for the Nuggets.
Over the last 15 games, opposing clubs have captured 13.3 offensive rebounds per game (most in the NBA) vs. the 76ers (continuing possessions that can spark bonus opportunities for offense).
As it relates to getting to the free-throw line, the Nuggets's poor 20.6 free throw attempts per game ranks 3rd-worst in the league this year.