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Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-120/-102).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -102.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made a terrific 3.4 threes per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 2.6 rate last year.Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 30.6 minutes per game when playing at home this year, ranking him in the 75th percentile -- putting him among the most-utilized players in the NBA.Offensive rebounds retain possession and result in additional opportunities for scoring and assists, and the Denver Nuggets rank 7thbest in in the league with 12.1 offensive boards per game over the last 10 games.With the home court advantage, the Houston Rockets have given up the 8th-least offensive boards per game (10.2) in the league to opposing clubs this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).The matchup against the Rockets is a positive one for getting to the charity stripe; the opposition's starting PFs have attempted a monstrous 4.6 foul shots per game this year (28th-most in the league).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The matchup vs. Houston is a hard one for 3-point shots; when the Rockets are at home, the opposition's starting PFs have compiled the 15th-lowest 3-point percentage in the league this year (24.0%).The Nuggets have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the NBA as the visting team this year.The Houston Rockets have played at the 3rd-least up-tempo tempo in the NBA away from their home court this year, which should decrease plays for the Denver Nuggets.Michael Porter Jr. has made a mere 59.3% of his foul shot attempts this year, significantly less than his 75.9 rate last year.As a team, the Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the charity stripe: 3rd-worst in the NBA this year, tallying a measly 19.5 free throws per game.
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