Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 11/27/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets · Nov 27, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 3:28 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has successfully made 4.0 threes per game over the last 5 games, 1.0 higher than he's converted from beyond the arc overall this season.
The Nuggets rank as the 5th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
This year when they are on their home court, the opposition's starting PFs have attempted 4.7 foul shots per game (25th-highest in the NBA) against the LA Clippers, making it fairly effortless to get to the free-throw line.

Favors Under

In terms of scoring, the Nuggets's lackluster 106.7 points per game measures as the 5th-lowest in the league this year.
This year, opposing starting PFs have registered 13.9 points per game (7th-lowest in the NBA) vs. the LA Clippers, labeling this as a challenging matchup for offensive effectiveness.
The Nuggets have played at the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league while playing away from home this year.
The Clippers have allowed the 8th-most offensive boards per game (11.7) in the NBA to the other team this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore create new opportunities for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has made a lowly 66.3% of his foul shots this season, significantly less than his 80.3 rate last season.

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