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Michael Porter Jr.

Michael Porter Jr. Points
Player Prop - 4/19/2023

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (+100/-122).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 16.6 field goals per game over the last 5 games, 3.4 higher than he's attempted in all games this season.

Michael Porter Jr. has made a terrific 3.1 treys per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 1.1 mark last year.

Michael Porter Jr. has averaged 28.5 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 75th percentile.

The Timberwolves have played at the 7th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should raise opportunities for the Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games on their home court (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The matchup against Minnesota is a difficult one for scoring; when the Timberwolves are away from home, the opposing team's starting SFs have averaged the 13th-least baskets per game in the league this year (5.2).

The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games while playing at home.

The Timberwolves have given up the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the NBA to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore lead to added chances for scoring and assists).

As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been poor at getting to the free throw line: 7th-worst in the league this year with a measly 22.3 free throws per game.

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