Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/16/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Apr 16, 2023

Updated Apr 17, 2023 2:36 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has sunk a terrific 3.0 threes per game this year, a sizeable increase from his 1.1 rate last year.
The Timberwolves have played at the 6th-fastest pace in the league this year, which should increase plays for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 6th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while playing at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and may therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk an impressive 80.8% of his foul shot attempts this year, a sizeable increase from his 60.0 mark last year.
The matchup vs. the Timberwolves may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposing team's starting SFs have attempted a massive 4.6 free throws per game over the last 20 games (30th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Minnesota is a challenging one for shot attempts from the field; when the Timberwolves are on the road, the other team's starting SFs have tallied the 14th-least field goal attempts per game in the NBA this year (10.9).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 25 games.
The Timberwolves have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (11.3) in the league to their opposition this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide added chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been lousy at getting to the free throw line: 7th-worst in the NBA this year with a measly 22.4 foul shot attempts per game.

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