Michael Porter Jr. Points - Player Prop Bet 4/2/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Golden State Warriors · Apr 2, 2023

Updated Apr 3, 2023 2:53 AM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Points Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has made an impressive 3.0 three-point shots per game this season, significantly more than his 1.1 rate last season.
The Denver Nuggets check in as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the league playing at home this year.
The Warriors have played at the speediest pace in the league this year, which ought to lead to more opportunities for the Nuggets.
Michael Porter Jr. has sunk a terrific 81.5% of his foul shots this season, a significant increase from his 60.0 mark last season.
Michael Porter Jr. will hold the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing at home usually raises player performance in all facets of the game.

Favors Under

The matchup vs. the Warriors is a hard one; they have given up the 10th-least points per game in the NBA to the opposition's starting SFs over the last 10 games (12.7).
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games.
While on the road, the Warriors have allowed the 4th-most offensive rebounds per game (12.2) in the NBA to opposing clubs over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce additional chances for scoring and assists).
As a team, the Denver Nuggets have been quite unsuccesful at drawing fouls: 9th-worst in the league this year, totaling a lowly 22.4 foul shot attempts per game.
The matchup vs. Donte DiVincenzo is a challenging one for getting to the foul line; when guarding opposing starting SFs this year, they have attempted a lowly 3.0 free throws per game (24th percentile).

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