Michael Porter Jr. Made 3 Point Shots - Player Prop Bet 2/15/2023

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Michael Porter Jr.

NBA · Player Props

Michael Porter Jr.

F · Denver Nuggets

Made 3 Point Shots

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks · Feb 15, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Michael Porter Jr. Made 3 Point Shots Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-172/+134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -142 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Michael Porter Jr. has made 49.4% of his 3-point attempts over the last 5 games at home, 12.5% higher than he's made from downtown over the course of the year while on his home court.
Michael Porter Jr. has attempted 9.6 3-pointers per game over the last 5 games, 2.5 higher than he's attempted in all games this year.
The Denver Nuggets rank as the most efficient 3-point shooting team in the league while playing at home this year.
The Denver Nuggets have played at the 6th-quickest pace in the NBA over the last 10 games.
Michael Porter Jr. will have the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing at home generally boosts player production for all stats.

Favors Under

The matchup against Dorian Finney-Smith is a tough one for attempts from downtown; when guarding fellow starting SFs this year, they have attempted a lowly 4.1 shots from behind the three-point arc per game (4th percentile).
The Mavericks have played at the most sluggish pace in the league on the road this year, which should reduce plays for the Nuggets.
The Denver Nuggets have been the 2nd-worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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