Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 4/28/2025

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Max Strus

NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Cleveland Cavaliers

Points

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Apr 28, 2025

Updated Apr 29, 2025 3:58 AM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-111/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 9.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 10.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has converted 3.8 three-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.5 more than he's made from downtown over the course of the year.
This year, the other team's starting SFs have averaged 12.2 shot attempts per game (7th-most in the NBA) against the Heat, designating this as a positive matchup.
The rate of treys made against Andrew Wiggins has been quite high (47.7%) when he is playing at home and squaring off against other starting SFs this year (100th percentile).
Offensive rebounds save possession and generate extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Cavaliers rank 4th-best in in the league with 12.1 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
Max Strus has converted 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 18.8% higher than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

Favors Under

The 10th-slowest pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 10 games has been the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish tempo in the NBA at home this year, which ought to decrease opportunities for the Cavaliers.
Max Strus ought to suffer a drop-off in production for all stats on account of playing away from home in this matchup.

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