Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 6/12/2023

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Max Strus

NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Miami Heat

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Jun 12, 2023

Updated Jun 12, 2023 11:26 PM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has attempted 6.8 three-pointers per game this year, placing him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the NBA.
The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the league away from home this year as it relates to three-point attempts.
The Nuggets have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the NBA to opposing teams over the last 20 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).
Max Strus has converted a whopping 86.9% of his foul shots this season, quite a bit higher than his 78.5 rate last season.

Favors Under

Max Strus has committed 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, making him one of the most most-whistled players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (81st percentile).
The matchup against the Nuggets is a difficult one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting SGs have averaged the 13th-least shots from behind the three-point arc per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The Miami Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games when playing on the road (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate extra chances for scoring and assists).

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