Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 6/4/2023

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NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Miami Heat

Points

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat · Jun 4, 2023

Updated Jun 4, 2023 11:56 PM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 9.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has attempted 6.9 three-point shots per game this year, putting him in the 93rd percentile out of all players in the league.
The Miami Heat have been the 8th-most aggressive offense in the NBA while on the road this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
The Nuggets have given up the least offensive rebounds per game (8.3) in the league to their opposition over the last 15 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce additional chances for scoring and assists).
Max Strus has converted a terrific 87.4% of his free throw attempts this season, a big improvement over his 78.5 mark last season.
The matchup against the Nuggets may be a positive one for drawing fouls; the opposition's starting SGs have attempted a whopping 4.7 foul shots per game over the last 20 games (29th-most in the league).

Favors Under

Max Strus has accumulated 0.1 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most foul-prone players in the NBA when it comes to getting T'ed up (81st percentile).
The matchup against the Nuggets is a tough one for three-pointers; opposing starting SGs have tallied the 7th-least threes per game in the NBA this year (1.8).
The Miami Heat have played at the least up-tempo pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-least up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 20 games at home, which should lead to decreased opportunities for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).