Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 5/10/2023

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Max Strus

NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Miami Heat

Points

New York Knicks vs Miami Heat · May 10, 2023

Updated May 10, 2023 11:31 PM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has attempted 6.9 shots from behind the three-point arc per game this year, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among all players in the league.
The Miami Heat check in as the 5th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games in terms of 3-point attempts.
The matchup against the Knicks is a strong one; they have given up the 25th-most points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting SGs over the last 5 games (20.3).
The Knicks have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (8.2) in the NBA to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore lead to fewer chances for scoring and assists).
Max Strus has sunk a terrific 88.0% of his free throws this season, a significant increase from his 78.5 rate last season.

Favors Under

Max Strus has been called for 3.4 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.3 more than he's been called for overall this year.
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league this year.
The Knicks have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 10 games, which ought to reduce plays for the Heat.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Max Strus will not possess the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home court usually lowers player production across the board.

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