Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 4/11/2023

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Max Strus

NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Atlanta Hawks · Apr 11, 2023

Updated Apr 12, 2023 3:01 AM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has made 46.1% of his 3-point shots over the last 5 games at home, 11.7% more than he's converted from beyond the arc in all games this year while at home.
The Miami Heat have been the 6th-most aggressive offense in the league over the last 5 games as it relates to three-point attempts.
The Hawks have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to raise possessions for the Heat.
Max Strus has converted 100.0% of his foul shot attempts over the last 5 games at home, 8.7% more than he's put through the net in all games this season on his home court.
The matchup vs. Atlanta may be a good one for getting to the free throw line; opposing starting SFs have attempted a whopping 4.1 foul shots per game over the last 10 games when the Hawks are on the road (25th-most in the league).

Favors Under

The matchup against the Hawks is a hard one for three-pointers; the opposing team's starting SFs have totaled the 11th-least 3-point shots per game in the league this year (1.6).
The Miami Heat have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 25 games.
The Miami Heat rank as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Without the home court advantage, the Hawks have allowed the 9th-most offensive rebounds per game (10.9) in the league to opposing squads over the last 25 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore provide new chances for scoring and assists).

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