Max Strus Points - Player Prop Bet 2/13/2023

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Max Strus

NBA · Player Props

Max Strus

G-F · Miami Heat

Points

Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets · Feb 13, 2023

Updated Apr 7, 2023 2:41 PM EST

Analysis

Max Strus Points Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-145/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Max Strus has attempted 10.7 shots per game this year, significantly higher than his 8.7 rate last year.
Max Strus has tallied an impressive 29.3 minutes per game this year, a significant increase from his 24.1 minutes per game last year.
The Nuggets have played at the 4th-speediest pace-of-play in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Heat.
The Miami Heat have been the 4th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce added chances for scoring and assists).
Max Strus has made 100.0% of his foul shots over the last 5 games, 12.0% more than he's put through the hoop overall this year.

Favors Under

Max Strus has committed 3.2 personal fouls per game over the last 5 games, 1.1 higher than he's committed overall this year.
The Miami Heat have been the lowest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The matchup against Denver is a challenging one for shots from the field; opposing starting SFs have totaled the 21st-least shot attempts per game in the league over the last 15 games when the Nuggets are away from home (12.1).
The matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is a difficult one for three-point shots; when squaring off against fellow starting SGs this year, they have tallied a measly 1.6 threes per game (3rd percentile).
The Miami Heat have played at the 2nd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games while at home.

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