Malcolm Brogdon Points - Player Prop Bet 3/21/2023

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Points

Sacramento Kings vs Boston Celtics · Mar 21, 2023

Updated Mar 22, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Points Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has averaged 19.4 points per game over the last 15 games when playing on the road, 3.5 higher than he's averaged over the course of the year on the road.
Malcolm Brogdon has successfully made 57.3% of his three-point shots over the last 15 games on the road, 9.5% more than he's converted from downtown over the course of the year away from his home court.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 4th-highest scoring offense in the NBA this year.
The Kings have played at the 8th-fastest pace-of-play in the league on their home court this year, which ought to lead to increased opportunities for the Celtics.
The Kings have allowed the 2nd-least offensive rebounds per game (7.8) in the NBA to the other team over the last 5 games (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

This matchup is a favorable one for shots from the field; when the Kings have the home court advantage, the other team have shot for the highest FG% in the NBA against them this year (50.3%).
The Boston Celtics have played at the 5th-slowest pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games away from home.
The Boston Celtics rank as the 9th-worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate further chances for scoring and assists).
This matchup may be a favorable one for drawing fouls; when the Kings are playing at home, their opposition have attempted a monstrous 25.0 free throws per game over the last 5 games (9th-most in the league).
Malcolm Brogdon will not have the home court advantage in this contest. Playing away from your home city tends to reduces stat production in all facets of the game.