Malcolm Brogdon Assists - Player Prop Bet 5/25/2023

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Malcolm Brogdon

NBA · Player Props

Malcolm Brogdon

G · Boston Celtics

Assists

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat · May 25, 2023

Updated May 26, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Malcolm Brogdon Assists Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+118/-144).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -142 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Malcolm Brogdon has put up 3.4 assists per game this year at home, placing him among the NBA's leaders by this metric over this stretch: 80th percentile.
Without the home court advantage, the Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.2) in the league to opposing teams this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra opportunities for scoring and assists).
Malcolm Brogdon will enjoy the home court advantage in this contest. Playing with the home court advantage generally increases player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

The Boston Celtics have played at the 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play in the league over the last 10 games.
The Heat have played at the most lethargic pace in the league over the last 15 games without the home court advantage, which should reduce opportunities for the Celtics.
The Boston Celtics have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 10 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce further chances for scoring and assists).

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