Luke Kornet Points - Player Prop Bet 3/2/2025

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Luke Kornet

NBA · Player Props

Luke Kornet

F-C · Boston Celtics

Points

Boston Celtics vs Denver Nuggets · Mar 2, 2025

Updated Mar 3, 2025 1:05 AM EST

Analysis

Luke Kornet Points Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Nuggets have played at the 3rd-speediest tempo in the league over the last 5 games, which should raise possessions for the Boston Celtics.
Offensive rebounds preserve possession and create extra chances for scoring and assists, and the Boston Celtics grade out 10th-best in in the league at home with 11.9 offensive boards per game over the last 20 games.
Luke Kornet has made 100.0% of his free throws over the last 5 games, 27.1% higher than he's converted over the course of the season.
Luke Kornet will receive the benefit of the home court advantage in this matchup. Playing on your home court tends to increase player production in all stat categories.

Favors Under

Relative to last season's 100.0% rate, Luke Kornet's three-point efficiency has been reduced this season to 0.0%.
The matchup vs. Nikola Jokic is a challenging one for shots from behind the three-point arc; when Jokic is playing on the road and matched up against fellow starting Cs this year, they have successfully made a mere 16.2% of their attempts from downtown (7th percentile).
The Celtics have played at the 2nd-most sluggish pace in the league over the last 10 games.
As a team, the Celtics have been bad at getting to the foul line in recent games: worst in the league over the last 25 games, averaging just 18.3 free throw attempts per game.
The clash with Nikola Jokic in regard to getting to the charity stripe rates in the 7th percentile for difficulty with opposing starting Cs attempting only 3.0 foul shots per game this year when they have the home court advantage.

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