Luka Doncic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 1/22/2024

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Dallas Mavericks vs Boston Celtics · Jan 22, 2024

Updated Jan 23, 2024 12:47 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-149/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has compiled 7.6 defensive rebounds per game this year, putting him among the best players in the NBA by this metric: 98th percentile.
Out of all players in the league, Luka Doncic slots into the 99th percentile for playing time, compiling a monstrous 36.7 minutes per game this year.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the 7th-fastest pace-of-play in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Celtics have played at the 4th-speediest pace in the NBA over the last 5 games away from their home stadium, which should lead to increased plays for the Dallas Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks check in as the 10th-best offensive rebounding offense in the NBA over the last 5 games at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession and can therefore produce new opportunities for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game this year, putting him among the most-whistled players in the league when it comes to getting T'ed up (99th percentile).
Over the last 20 games, their opposition has snagged 11.7 offensive rebounds per game (4th-highest in the league) against the Celtics (retaining possessions that can produce added chances for offense).

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