Luka Doncic Rebounds - Player Prop Bet 4/1/2023

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Dallas Mavericks

Rebounds

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks · Apr 1, 2023

Updated Apr 1, 2023 10:46 PM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Rebounds Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Luka Doncic has averaged 7.8 defensive rebounds per game this year, putting him in the 98th percentile -- among the hottest players in the league in this category in recent games.
Luka Doncic has tallied 35.9 minutes per game this year, seeing the court more than most players in the league: 98th percentile.
The Heat have allowed the least offensive rebounds per game (9.0) in the NBA to opposing squads this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them can therefore reduce extra chances for scoring and assists).

Favors Under

Luka Doncic has committed 0.2 technical fouls per game while playing on the road this year, ranking in the 99th percentile -- among the NBA's most foul-prone when it comes to technicals.
The Dallas Mavericks have played at the slowest pace-of-play in the NBA without the home court advantage this year.
The Heat have played at the slowest pace in the league over the last 25 games, which ought to lead to decreased possessions for the Mavericks.
The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league this year (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).
Luka Doncic will not enjoy the benefit of the home court advantage in this game. Playing away from your home stadium generally decreases player performance across the board.

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