Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/4/2026

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 4, 2026

Updated Jan 5, 2026 2:45 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-111/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 28.4 rate, Luka Doncic's points per game have surged this year to 33.6.
When it comes to scoring, the Lakers's exceptional 121.9 points per game as the home team settles in as the 5th-most in the NBA over the last 10 games.
The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to see an increase in plays in this game from being pitted against the speediest tempo team in the league over the last 5 games (the Grizzlies).
This year, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 5.1 free throws per game (2nd-highest in the league) vs. the Grizzlies, finding it easy to get to the foul line.

Favors Under

The matchup against Memphis is a hard one; when the Memphis Grizzlies are the visiting team, they have given up the 8th-least points per game in the NBA to the other team's starting PGs this year (17.0).
The Los Angeles Lakers have played at the 7th-slowest pace in the NBA over the last 15 games.
The Lakers check in as the worst offensive rebounding offense in the league over the last 5 games while at home (offensive rebounds maintain possession, and a lack of them may therefore eliminate additional opportunities for scoring and assists).

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