Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 1/2/2026

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Memphis Grizzlies · Jan 2, 2026

Updated Jan 3, 2026 3:24 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-124/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ +108 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Compared to last year's 28.4 clip, Luka Doncic's points per game have risen this year to 33.5.
With respect to offense, the Lakers's terrific 120.3 points per game while at home rates 7th-strongest in the NBA this year.
The Memphis Grizzlies have played at the most up-tempo pace in the NBA over the last 5 games, which ought to boost opportunities for the Los Angeles Lakers.
The matchup against the Grizzlies is a strong one for drawing fouls; opposing starting PGs have attempted a colossal 5.1 foul shots per game this year (2nd-most in the league).

Favors Under

The matchup vs. Memphis is a tough one; when the Grizzlies are the visiting team, they have allowed the 8th-least points per game in the NBA to opposing starting PGs this year (17.0).
The 4th-most sluggish pace-of-play offense in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.
Offensive rebounds lengthen possession and bring about further opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Los Angeles Lakers rank 2ndworst in in the NBA as the home team with only 8.8 offensive boards per game this year.

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