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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 12/28/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Sacramento Kings

 
 
 
Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 34.5 (-132/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -128 before it was bet up to 34.5 @ -132.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In contrast to last year's 28.4 rate, Luka Doncic's points per game have jumped this year to 33.7.
  • The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to see a spike in possessions in this game from facing the 5th-quickest pace-of-play away offense in the NBA over the last 15 games (the Kings).
  • Offensive rebounds preserve possession and lead to additional chances for scoring and assists, and the Lakers rank 5th-best in in the NBA with 14.4 offensive rebounds per game over the last 5 games.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Lakers have been the 8th-least aggressive offense in the league this year in terms of 3-point attempts.
  • This year when they have the home court advantage, the opposition's starting PGs have scored 15.2 points per game (3rd-lowest in the NBA) vs. the Sacramento Kings, marking this as a difficult matchup for offensive effectiveness.
  • The 3rd-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 5 games has been the Los Angeles Lakers.
  • This year when they have the home court advantage, opposing starting PGs have attempted 3.3 free throws per game (8th-lowest in the NBA) against the Sacramento Kings, making it tough to get to the charity stripe.

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