Luka Doncic Points - Player Prop Bet 12/1/2025

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Luka Doncic

NBA · Player Props

Luka Doncic

F-G · Los Angeles Lakers

Points

Los Angeles Lakers vs Phoenix Suns · Dec 1, 2025

Updated Dec 2, 2025 3:04 AM EST

Analysis

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-115/+107).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 31.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Relative to last year's 28.4 clip, Luka Doncic's points per game have spiked this year to 35.1.
The Lakers rank as the highest scoring offense in the NBA over the last 5 games while at home.
The 9th-most up-tempo pace-of-play team in the NBA over the last 5 games has been the Lakers.

Favors Under

The matchup against Phoenix is a difficult one; when the Phoenix Suns are the visiting squad, they have allowed the least points per game in the league to opposing starting PGs this year (12.2).
The Los Angeles Lakers are expected to suffer a reduction in possessions today from being pitted against the 6th-most lethargic pace-of-play team in the league over the last 15 games (the Phoenix Suns).
Offensive rebounds continue possession and create added opportunities for scoring and assists, but the Los Angeles Lakers grade out 4thworst in in the league with only 9.5 offensive rebounds per game this year.
This year when they are on their home court, the other team's starting PGs have attempted 2.1 free throws per game (2nd-fewest in the league) vs. the Phoenix Suns, facing an uphill battle to get to the foul line.

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