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Luka Doncic

Luka Doncic Points
Player Prop - 4/22/2025

Los Angeles Lakers vs Minnesota Timberwolves

Luka Doncic Points Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Luka Doncic has converted 5.0 3-point shots per game over the last 5 games, 1.4 higher than he's converted over the course of the season.

Luka Doncic has averaged 35.4 minutes per game this year, some of the highest playing time of any player in the NBA: 96th percentile.

Luka Doncic has attempted 7.9 foul shots per game this year, putting him in the 99th percentile out of all players in the NBA.

As a team, the Los Angeles Lakers have been very successful at drawing fouls at home: 2nd-best in the league this year, totaling 24.1 free throws per game.

Luka Doncic should see a spike in efficiency in all facets of the game on account of having the home court advantage in this matchup.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In comparison to last year's 23.4 mark, Luka Doncic's shots have been reduced this year to 20.5 per game.

This year, opposing starting PGs have shot 39.8% on shot attempts from the field (weakest in the league) against the Minnesota Timberwolves, branding this as a hard matchup.

The Lakers have played at the 5th-most sluggish pace-of-play in the league over the last 15 games as the home team.

The Lakers will likely suffer a drop-off in possessions in this contest from competing against the 2nd-slowest pace offense in the NBA over the last 10 games (the Minnesota Timberwolves).

Offensive rebounds preserve possession and generate further chances for scoring and assists, but the Los Angeles Lakers grade out 4thworst in in the league with a mere 9.7 offensive boards per game this year.

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